目的 尝试在设计研究中引入贝叶斯网络分析工具，结合案例的统计数据计算，分析用户需求与行为的映射关系，系统设计快递包装回收的解决方案。方法 通过调查问卷法、观察法、访谈法对用户行为进行数据采集，结合生活方式转变机制模型，运用贝叶斯网络进行用户研究，产出需求理解，指导产品服务系统设计工作的开展。结果 快递包装再设计的产品基础属性、使用便捷性、系统完整程度会在很大程度上影响用户行为可持续性以及设计认同度。结论 通过研究形成了可持续的快递包装使用系统，帮助引导用户可持续行为，从产品全生命周期的理论角度为快递包装回收的产品服务系统设计提供了面向用户研究的全新设计思考方法，证明了贝叶斯网络在用户研究中解决不确定性问题的积极意义。

The work aims to introduce Bayesian Network as an analysis tool in the design research and analyze the mapping relationship between user requirement and behavior combined with the statistical data and calculation results of cases, so as to systematically design the solution for express packaging recycling. By means of questionnaire, observation and interview, data of user behavior were collected. Combined with the mechanism model of lifestyle change, user research was carried out by Bayesian Network to produce requirement understanding and guide the design of product service system. The basic product attributes, ease of use and system integrity of express packaging redesign greatly affected the sustainability of user behavior and design recognition. A sustainable express packaging use system is constructed which is conductive to guiding the sustainable behavior of users and provides a new design thinking method for user-oriented research in the design of product service system for express packaging recycling from the theoretical perspective of the whole life cycle of products, thus proving the positive significance of Bayesian Network in solving the uncertainty problem in user research.