目的 针对复杂装备数字标准人工效评价依赖确定性输入、难以表达结论稳定性和跨阈值风险的问题,提出一种融合不确定性传播与可信度表征的工效评价方法。方法 以去型号化复杂装备控制面板为演示案例,构建包括可达性、姿态舒适性、视觉适配性和操作空间适配性的评价体系,将人体、姿态、装备结构和评价阈值作为不确定性输入。在输入变量相互独立的算例假设下开展1 000次蒙特卡洛采样,获得评分分布、95%分位数区间和低于阈值概率,并从等级稳定性、区间集中性和风险可接受性三个互补方面构建可信度指数。结果 确定性评分与概率评分均值的平均绝对差为0.6分。P5女性评分均值为71.6分,低于70分的概率为34.5%,可信度指数为0.61,表明高位应急按钮存在可达性风险;P50男性相应概率为4.8%,可信度指数为0.86;P95男性相应概率为12.2%,可信度指数为0.74,主要风险来自操作空间适配性。结论 所提方法在基本保持中心评分一致的同时,将单点评价扩展为包含区间、风险概率和可信等级的综合表达,可用于识别边缘人群和安全关键任务中的潜在工效风险。由于参数范围及相关结构尚未由真实装备和现场数据校准,当前结果主要用于验证方法流程和说明其决策信息增量。
Abstract
The work aims to propose an ergonomic evaluation method integrating uncertainty propagation and credibility representation to address the reliance of digital standard humans based ergonomic evaluation on deterministic inputs and its limited ability to represent conclusion stability and threshold-crossing risks. With a de-identified complex equipment control panel as the demonstration case, an evaluation system comprising reachability, postural comfort, visual adaptability, and operating-space adaptability was established, with human, posture, equipment-structure, and evaluation-threshold parameters treated as uncertain inputs. Assuming independent input variables, 1 000 Monte Carlo simulations were conducted to obtain score distributions, 95% quantile intervals, and probabilities of falling below the threshold. A credibility index was then constructed from three complementary components: grade stability, interval concentration, and risk acceptability. The mean absolute difference between the deterministic scores and the mean probabilistic scores was 0.6 points. For the P5 female group, the mean score was 71.6, the probability of scoring below 70 was 34.5%, and the credibility index was 0.61, indicating a reachability risk associated with the elevated emergency button. The corresponding probability and credibility index were 4.8% and 0.86 for the P50 male group and 12.2% and 0.74 for the P95 male group, whose principal risk arose from operating-space adaptability. While maintaining broadly consistent central scores, the proposed method extends single-point evaluation into a comprehensive representation incorporating intervals, risk probabilities, and credibility grades, thereby enabling the identification of potential ergonomic risks affecting population extremes and safety-critical tasks. Since the parameter ranges and dependence structures have not yet been calibrated using data from real equipment and field operations, the present results primarily demonstrate the methodological workflow and its additional value for design decision-making.
关键词
复杂装备 /
数字标准人 /
工效评估 /
不确定性传播 /
蒙特卡洛方法 /
可信度表征
Key words
complex equipment /
digital standard human /
ergonomic evaluation /
uncertainty propagation /
Monte Carlo method /
credibility representation
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基金
国家重点研发计划课题（2023YFF0615901）
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